Forex Swing Trades on the Radar–June 26

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Price Action Swing Trading – The PAST Strategy

Nigel Price

Master Trader

Hello and welcome to this thread. I am going to show here a style of trading that I use called Price Action Swing Trading, or PAST for short.

In very simple terms, it just combines two very simple price action setups, one on a larger timeframe and one on a lower timeframe.

I use these two price action set ups as tools to implement a simple trading objective, which for me is of paramount importance – to keep losing trades as small as possible and allow winning trades to grow as large as possible.

I will start to post some charts here this week to give you a greater insight into the price action signals that I use. Hopefully they will be of some use to anyone who is interested in price action trading.

Nigel Price

Master Trader

I’m going to be looking for opportunities to short the EUR/AUD pair this week. I’ll explain why in a later post.

But as it is happening right now, I thought I would show the trade I opened just this morning. Here it is on a 1 hour chart.

I love this type of price action set up because it allows me to get into the market with a very tight stop, so I can keep my risk to a minimum. In this case the trade only went 10 pips against me at its worst point.

It’s now 35 pips in profit, and I have set my stop to breakeven.

Risk = zero; reward = yet to be decided.

Attachments

Nigel Price

Master Trader

In the above example I get interested when price is approaching the underside of the trendline (drawn in orange in the above example).

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I like to enter my sell trade when price is as close as possible to the trendline.

I have very clear expectations – price should not manage to establish itself above the trendline, because this would signal that the buyers have regained control of the market. If price manages to to this, I quickly acknowledge that I am wrong on this occasion. I close my trade and take my loss.

I want to see price fail at the underside of the trendline and then quickly fall away. The buyers tried to regain control of the market after the trendline break but have run out of steam; the sellers are back in control. When this happens my sell trade will move into profit, and as it does so, I will tighten my risk by bringing my stop to break-even.

I now have a risk-free trade.

Nigel Price

Master Trader

Just an update from the trade this morning – it is now approximately 80 pips in profit.

I regularly aim for significantly more than 80 pips. I like to control risk very tightly, so I must be prepared to take a lot of losing trades. It is important therefore that when the winning trades come along I make the most out of them.

My stop is at break-even, so I am risking nothing on the trade now. There is an Aussie rate decision due out tonight, so the volatility might take me out. But if it does, I won’t lose anything. If it moves in my favour, I might gain a lot.

This is the most important thing in trading in my view – always put yourself in a position that if you lose you only lose a little, but when you win, you win a lot. Big wins pay for lots of little losers.

Anyway – here is the chart.

Attachments

Nigel Price

Master Trader

The Aussie weakened last night after the rate decision, which prompted a rally in the Eur/Aud, triggering my stop. So I have lost 0 pips so far this week.

I will continue to look for shorting opportunities in Eur/Aud this week. As I said earlier, I will do a post later in the week explaining why.

The next trendline I am going to keep an eye on is shown on the 1 hour chart below.

You might draw a different trendline to me, there is no right or wrong. As long as it joins two or more points on a chart, it’s a trendline. I just happen to like the one below because it has quite a few touches.

I might enter on a break of this trendline if and when it occurs, or I might wait for a retest. When you enter is not what it important. What is important is that when you do enter you control your risk as tightly as possible, and if your trade turns out to be a winner, you give it every opportunity to grow into a large one.

I’ll update on this later in the day.

Attachments

Nigel Price

Master Trader

During the course of the Asian session my trendline was briefly broken, driven by some volatility after some Australian economic data was released.

I was in my bed so I didn’t trade this, but it’s worth taking a look at to see how it might have panned out.

If I went short on a break of the trendline I would have been entering around the 1.4150 level. Price quickly got to 25 pips profit, at 1.4125. When price moves into profit quickly you then have to think about reducing your risk, bringing your stop as close to breakeven as possible. At this stage of the process we are totally focused on controlling risk, so we take as much of it off the table as we can.

Just as quickly as it moved into profit, price began to retrace back towards our entry at 1.4150. We should be alarmed by this. If we are correct, price should continue to move away briskly from the trendline. If it doesn’t, we must consider how best to control risk. Perhaps price is considering retesting the trendline from the underneath, as we have looked at in earlier posts. If it does, we can always think about getting back into the trade then. We should never keep a trade open that is showing a loss unless we have a very good reason. We should always keep losing trades as small as possible.

Although I didn’t trade this trendline break, I am estimating that had I have done so I would have taken perhaps a 10 pip loss, purely because price was moving quite fast. I’d have been happy with that, or even a bit more. 10 – 20 pips is nothing when you see what can be achieved on the big winners.

My trendline is still on my chart, and I’ll be keeping an eye on it again during the course of today.

Hope these posts are of some help

Attachments

myknees

Trader

Nigel Price

Master Trader

No worries – Eur/Aud is moving a bit higher alright, but I have no position so I’m happy enough. I don’t mind a market moving against me as long as I have no losing positions!

I’ll still be looking for short opportunities for the remainder of the week, particularly on a break of the trendline I’ve been looking at in the previous posts.

I’ll do a post towards the end of the week explaining why I’ve been looking to short Eur/Aud.

Any questions don’t be afraid to ask

Nigel Price

Master Trader

As we move through each week, the look of the market changes and price sets new highs and lows. The market is dynamic and so our analysis needs to be dynamic to reflect that.

Our trendlines should be as obvious as possible, and a couple of new ones have presented themselves during the last 24 hours. So I have updated the analysis with two more charts, a 1 hour chart and a 4 hour chart.

I’ll be looking for short opportunities around the trendlines below over the course of the remainder of the week. I will be continuing to short – if the market does fall I will be aggressive, if the market rises (and it has been strong so far this week) I will keep any losses under strict control.

Attachments

Nigel Price

Master Trader

I will do a more detailed report on the week’s trading later, but for now, here is one more bearish EUR/AUD setup. Be careful though, because the NFP is out later today. I have a couple of short positions open already from earlier in the week with their stops at breakeven, so if this breaks I will probably sit it out.

Maybe if it breaks today we could get a retest sometime next week. There will always be another trade!

Attachments

myknees

Trader

fortunatus

Trader

Nigel Price

Master Trader

Here is my chart from the analysis I did over the weekend. After today’s price action we are just sitting on the trendline, at the end of the first red arrow. Perhaps we will get a break/retest over the next couple of days.

I will do a longer post explaining why I am sticking with shorting EUR/AUD at some stage this week.

Have a good trading week!

Attachments

Nigel Price

Master Trader

Here is my chart from the analysis I did over the weekend. After today’s price action we are just sitting on the trendline, at the end of the first red arrow. Perhaps we will get a break/retest over the next couple of days.

I will do a longer post explaining why I am sticking with shorting EUR/AUD at some stage this week.

Have a good trading week!

Attachments

Nigel Price

Master Trader

No worries fortunatus, I’d be happy to answer any questions on the strategy to the best of my ability.
Do your worst!

Remember, in trading there is no right or wrong, only opinion. It’s how you navigate those shades of grey that matters – everything else is of minor consequence.

Nigel Price

Master Trader

So we had a good day today with price breaking our trendline convincingly and falling around 150 pips. As I said earlier, I have one sell position on the break but I was keeping an eye out for a retrace. Price made a feeble attempt to rally mid-morning but it couldn’t muster the strength to tag the trendline from underneath and once it became apparent that the bulls were under sustained pressure, price fell away sharply for the rest of the session.

The bulls don’t look very lively right now, so a retest may not occur at all. But no-one knows what is going to happen tomorrow – if we see ourselves back underneath the purple line again I might consider re-shorting.

My primary focus, as always, is to control what I know I can control, and that is my risk. My stop is at breakeven now so my risk is zero. I intend to hold through any rallies that may occur tomorrow or later on in the week, with a view to price falling further. If I am wrong, I get stopped out and I lose nothing. If I am correct my position will grow even bigger. Let’s see what happens.

The updated chart is below.

All the best for now

Attachments

fortunatus

Trader

Nigel Price

Master Trader

Hi fortunatus, Good question. The timeframes are very much a matter for personal preference. And your situation too. For instance, if you can only check your charts a few times a day, you probably shouldn’t be planning and executing your trades on a 1 minute chart.

But there is a broader point here that I think people sometimes miss. Say for instance you are standing on top of a mountain and there is a spectacular view in front of you. You want to take a photograph to remind yourself of the scenery. You take out your camera – you will adjust focus, zoom, orientation, angle, etc, to try to make sure you get the best shot possible. Did anything in front of you actually change as a result of you fiddling with your camera? No, of course not.

Price is the same. It follows the same path no matter what timeframe you choose to show it on. What size is your screen? Maybe a 1 hour chart might look terrible on my small screen but beautiful and clear on yours. It is simply a matter of presentation.

Below is the chart from today on the 30 min timeframe instead of the 4 hour. It’s a bit more scrunched up but the levels are still the same. Some people like to look at a chart like this, some people like to have a chart with big candles, some people like OLHC bars, some Heiken Ashi, some just line charts. They are all just different ways of presenting the same information.

When you say “manage” trades, I am presuming that you mean where I get out when I am wrong. Well, my main reference point on the chart is usually the trendline, and that should come at roughly the same price no matter what the timeframe – as I said, the levels are the same no matter what chart you are looking at.

Notwithstanding all of the above though, I do recommend when people are starting out that they don’t really go much below the one hour chart, because on the lower timeframes it is sometimes easy to lose perspective a bit. Four hour is a nice compromise too.

But other than that, use whatever timeframe you are most comfortable with. Personally I check out a few and just use whichever one fits the price best on my screen.

Swing Trading: An Antidote for Frustrated Traders

Updated: January 20, 2020

Forex trading – the most frustrating endeavor you will probably ever face in your lifetime.

Most traders enter the market with the best intentions but dissolve their hard earned money to the market, filling the pocket of successful traders.

At The Forex Guy, we believe the level of success reached depends heavily on the individual trader’s methodology.

Most traders are drawn into the lower time frames where they believe more money is waiting for them.

These types of strategies encourage very bad habits and are toxic to your trading mindset.

I would like to talk with you about the extremely powerful nature of swing trading – possibly the simple solution you’ve be searching for all this time which could change your chart reading skills, today.

What is Swing Trading?

I am going to assume you’ve looked at a price chart before. You would have noticed the market doesn’t move in straight ‘bee lines’ from point A to B on the chart.

Instead price ‘swings’ from high and low points, gradually stepping it’s way higher or lower down the chart. These ‘swing highs’ and ‘swing lows’ are key technical points on a price chart which can help a trader anticipate where the market is heading with high accuracy.

These technical points are more familiarly known as swing points.

‘Swing’ trading is the skill of reading a price chart and tracing the footprints swing points leave on the chart to anticipate future price movement, and building high probability, high ROI trades off them. “Buying the dips and selling the rallies.”

A trader’s ‘style’ can be broken down into four main categories.

  • Scalpers (Short term, quick in-and-out trading)
  • Day Traders (Intra-day trading, no overnight positions)
  • Swing Traders (Medium to long term, trend momentum & range trading)
  • Position Traders (Long term, ‘buy and hold’ trading )

Swing trading sits in a ‘sweet spot’ between the caffeine fueled day trader and the ‘buy and hold’ position trader.

It is the ‘Goldilocks’ approach – not too fast but not too slow.

A nicely paced trading style, centered around momentum trading. You can let your trades run to take advantage of what’s happening on a bigger scale. It’s less taxing on you (mentally & physically) – and most important of all, it’s a very lucrative trading methodology, especially for the little effort you put in.

These strategies don’t normally appeal to many traders on first impression. It appears too boring to most new traders – they want trade signals rolled out at high frequency, because of the dangerous misconception of ‘more trades = more money’.

This mentality pushes the majority of the herd towards lower time frames to where toxic day trading and scalping systems are deployed.

Let me share with you why swing trading is one of the most effective approaches, and my favorite methodology of Forex trading

Checkpoint

Less effort required

Swing traders have the advantage of getting the biggest ‘bang for their buck’.

Swing traders don’t have to invest a lot of time in front of the charts to be able to trade at full potential.

Most swing traders, including myself, use the daily time frame to perform technical market analysis.

More aggressive swing traders will switch to the 4 hour time frame to ‘tweak’ trade entries, and now more recently we’ve been using 12 hour charts in the war room.

Unlike scalpers and day traders who have to sit in front of the trading screen to wait for signals, swing traders can go with a more set, forget and collect approach.

Swing traders who use the end of day trading approach, only have to check the markets at the daily candle close. It’s always recommended to use a broker that serves you a daily candle which closes inline with the New York 5 pm business close.

If a trade signal is found after the close of day, swing traders can setup up their trade order by inputting entry, stop and target prices, and then walk away from the computer to go about their business.

By setting and forgetting your swing trade positions, you only have to check the markets once per day for about 20 mins.

This ‘hands off’ approach helps smooth out the emotional roller coaster that many traders struggle with. The idea is to let the trade run its course, not fret over every minor move the market makes throughout the day.

Swing traders who use intra-day charts like the 4, 8 and 12 hour chart still only have to spend a small amount of time analyzing candlestick closes in contrast to someone who is sitting in front of the screen cycling through 5 and 15 min candles.

Checkpoint

Develop Strong chart reading abilities

Swing traders can become master chart readers by learning how to read the higher time frames.

One of the benefits of the daily time frame is the fact that it filters out a lot of the intra-day noise. By getting rid of the noise and focusing on the bigger picture – you will find true clarity, probably for the first time in your trading.

These time frames above the 1 hour chart allow you to focus on the core market movement and identify trend momentum much more easily.

It only takes a couple of seconds to get your bearings on a time frame that offers you more data. Trade signals and price action patterns are much more easily defined in contrast to the lower time frames, where price can be very ‘messy’.

Human behavior rarely changes. As a collected group, we keep doing the same thing over and over again in the markets.

The market continues responding the same way to certain situations, which is great for those who tap in and exploit the reoccurring behavior.

The collected market psychology is visible in the candlesticks, thus unique situations present themselves as price action patterns.

An example of a price action pattern is the rejection candle reversal pattern, which predictably manufactures the same response from the market as it has in the past many times before.

By using historical data and observing the past behavior of pin bars, we can start to identify low risk trading opportunities at key turning points in current markets.

As a swing trader, you will eventually be able to read the ‘herd mentality’ in the candlesticks and accurately anticipate future price movements based on observations in the past .

Checkpoint

The Art of Swing Trading

We’re taking about the skill of catching trend momentum at the optimal moment.

A lot of ‘gurus’ say to take the breakout of previous swing highs or lows – I don’t like this approach because these recommended entry levels are consistent turning points in the market and are prone to breakout traps.

The smart way to approach swing trading is to look for short term oscillations (counter trend movements) within in a trend to take advantage of good buying or selling opportunities.

First you need to identify ‘swing levels’ where old resistance becomes new support, or the other way around.

When a swing level is tested, traders can look for buy or sell signals generated by their trading system. In our case we look for price action reversal patterns to enter us into a trade.

The idea is to buy on weakness and sell on strength to get you into the trend at the best possible prices.

Read that again…

Buy on weakness
Sell on strength

The example above demonstrates the advantages of buying on weakness in an uptrend.

Smart trading is exploiting those short term oscillations (counter trend movements) to enter into the trend momentum at these swing levels.

Swing trading allows you to catch the ’meat’ of the move by generally holding a position that can last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks – sometimes months.

Much better than day traders and scalpers who spend hours in front of the screen to pick up breadcrumbs.

Slow and steady wins the race here. The advantage here is you don’t need any sophisticated computer setups or ultra-high speed connections.

Spreads don’t become an issue either, when you’re pulling in 150-200 pip or more on each trade, you’re not going to kick and scream about a spread charge from your broker greater than 3 pips.

Checkpoint

Managing trading with your life

Let’s face it, we all have busy lives.

Most of us have full time day jobs, studying or looking after kids at home. That doesn’t free up a lot of time to allocate to spend in front of the computer for Forex trading.

Most new traders who opt into high frequency trading find it hard to blend it into their busy lifestyle. It consumes much of the traders life – often making them very anti social, and if trading isn’t going well, a very negative person to be around also.

Location can be a problem for some people as well. The trick is to keep trading as simple as possible.

Their time zone may not be a good fit for intra-day systems, especially if you have to get up at 3 am to when volatility is high enough.

This is where swing trading really shines.

You only need to check the markets at key intervals which are often 8-12 hours apart.

If you go a step further and focus only on the closing price for the day to do your price action swing trading analysis – you really only need 10-20 minutes per day to allocate to the trading screen to set or check your trades.

By using the set and forget approach, there is no need to ‘babysit’ your trades or watch over them.

Once your trade is set, the market takes over and you go live your life. So, it’s possible to trade on a more casual timetable but still reap the benefits of a full time trader.

Checkpoint

In a Nutshell

This type of trading may not appeal to everyone at first, but if you find your system frustrating – I really suggest you look into this.

Some traders need time to adapt to certain methods, or try others systems before deciding which is or isn’t a suitable fit for them.

I am however confident that if you persist and truly want to become successful with Forex, that you will eventually find yourself swing trading with the rest of us.

Traders who are interested in maximizing their profits for the minimal amount of time invested should really consider making the switch to swing trading strategies.

The goal of a swing trader is to take advantage of momentum until it has run its course. We use price action trading strategies and combine them with swing trading methodologies to capture the bulk of trend movements.

The benefits of price action trading and swing trading marry well together and create a symbiotic relationship that produces a stress free, simple, logical and stable trading approach to the market.

If you would like to know more about price action swing trading, become a master chart reader, or are just looking to gain a true edge in the market – you may be interested in our price action protocol trading course.

To find out more about the course, see our War Room Trader Membership for price action and swing traders.

Let me know in the poll below what your favorite style of trading is at the moment.

Day Trading vs Swing Trading

Raphye Alexius / Getty Images

The time frame on which a trader opts to trade can have a significant impact on trading strategy and profitability. Day traders open and close multiple positions within a single day, while swing traders take trades that last multiple days, weeks or even months. These two different trading styles can suit various traders depending on the amount of capital available, time availability, psychology, and the market being traded.

One trading style isn’t better than another and it really comes down to which style suits a trader’s personal circumstances. Some traders opt to do one or the other, while others may be day traders, swing traders, and buy-and-hold investors all at once.

Day Trading Versus Swing Trading: Potential Returns

Day trading attracts traders looking for rapid compounding of returns. Assume a trader risks 0.5% of their capital on each trade. If they lose, they’ll lose 0.5%, but if they win they’ll make 1% (2:1 reward-to-risk ratio).

Also, assume they win 50% of their trades. If they make six trades per day, on average, they will be adding about 1.5% to their account balance each day, less trading fees. Making even 1% a day would grow a trading account by more than 200% over the course of the year, uncompounded.

On the flip side, while the numbers seem easy to replicate for huge returns, nothing’s ever that easy. Making twice as much on winners as you lost on losers, while also winning 50% of all the trades you take, doesn’t come easily. You can make quick gains, but you can also rapidly deplete your trading account through day trading.

Swing trading accumulates gains and losses more slowly than day trading, but you can still have certain swing trades that quickly result in big gains or losses. Assume a swing trader uses the same risk management rule and risks 0.5% of their capital on each trade with a goal of trying to make 1% to 2% on their winning trades.

Assume they earn 1.5% on average for winning trades, losing 0.5% on losing trades. They make six trades per month and win 50% of those trades. In a typical month, the swing trader could make 3% on their account balance, less fees. Over the course of the year, that comes out to about 36%, which sounds good but offers less potential than a day trader’s possible earnings.

These example scenarios serve to illustrate the distinction between the two trading styles. Altering the percentage of trades won, the average win compared to average loss, or the number of trades, will drastically affect a strategy’s earning potential.

As a general rule, day trading has more profit potential, at least on smaller accounts. As the size of the account grows it becomes harder and harder to effectively utilize all the capital on very short-term day trades.

Day traders may find their percentage returns decline the more capital they have. Their dollar returns may still go up, since making 5% on $1 million equates to much more than 20% on $100,000. Swing traders have less chance of this happening.

Varying Capital Requirements

Capital requirements vary according to the market being trading. Day trading and swing traders can start with differing amounts of capital depending on whether they trade the stock, forex, or futures market.

Day trading stocks in the US requires an account balance of at least $25,000. No legal minimum exists to swing trade stocks, although a swing trader will likely want to have at least $10,000 in their account, and preferably $20,000 if looking to draw an income from trading.

To day trade the forex market, no legal minimum exists, but it is recommended that traders start with at least $500, but preferably $1,000 or more. To swing trade forex, the minimum recommended is about $1,500, but preferably more. This amount of capital will allow you to enter at least a few trades at one time.

To day trade futures, start with at least $5,000 to $7,500, and more capital would be even better. These amounts depend on the futures contract being traded. Day trading some contracts could require much more capital, while a few contracts, such as micro contracts, may require less.

To swing trade a variety of futures contracts, you need at least $10,000, and likely $20,000 or more. The amount needed depends on the margin requirements of the specific contract being traded.

Trading Times Differ

Both day trading and swing trading require time, but day trading typically takes up much more time. Day traders usually trade for at least two hours per day. Adding on preparation time and chart/trading review means spending at least three to four hours at the computer, at a minimum. If a day trader opts to trade for more than a couple hours a day, the time investment goes up considerably and it becomes a full-time job.

Swing trading, on the other hand, can take much less time. For example, if you’re swing trading off a daily chart, you could find new trades and update orders on current positions in about 45 minutes a night. These activities may not even be required on a nightly basis.

Some swing traders, taking trades that last weeks or months, may only need to look for trades and update orders once a week, bringing the time commitment down to about an hour per week instead of per night, or updating orders may not even be required on a nightly basis.

You must also do day trading while a market is open and active. The most effective hours for day trading are limited to certain periods of the day. If you can’t day trade during those hours, then choose swing trading as a better option. Swing traders can look for trades or place orders at any time of day, even after the market has closed.

Swing traders are less affected by the second-to-second changes in the price of an asset. They focus on the bigger picture, typically looking at daily charts, so placing trades after the market closes on a particular day works just fine. Day traders make money off second-by-second movements, so they need to be involved while the action is happening.

Focus, Time, and Practice

Swing trading and day trading both require a good deal of work and knowledge to generate profits consistently, although the knowledge required isn’t necessarily “book smarts.” Successful trading results from finding a strategy that produces an edge, or a profit over a significant number of trades, and then executing that strategy over and over again.

Some knowledge on the market being traded and one profitable strategy can start generating income, along with lots and lots of practice. Each day prices move differently than they did on the last, which means the trader needs to be able to implement their strategy under various conditions and adapt as conditions change.

This presents a difficult challenge, and consistent results only come from practicing a strategy under loads of different market scenarios. That takes time and should involve making hundreds of trades in a demo account before risking real capital.

Choosing day trading or swing trading also comes down to personality. Day trading typically involves more stress, requires sustained focus for extended periods of time and takes incredible discipline. People that like action, have fast reflexes, and/or like video games and poker tend to gravitate toward day trading.

Swing trading happens at a slower pace, with much longer lapses between actions like entering or exiting trades. It can still be high stress, and also requires immense discipline and patience.

It doesn’t require as much sustained focus, so if you have difficulty staying focused, swing trading may be the better option. Fast reflexes don’t matter in swing trading as trades can be taken after the market closes and prices have stopped moving.

Day trading and swing trading both offer freedom in the sense that a trader is their own boss. Traders typically work on their own, and they are responsible for funding their accounts and for all losses and profits generated. One can argue that swing traders have more freedom in terms of time because swing trading takes up less time than day trading.

A Final Comparison

One trading style isn’t better than the other; they just suit differing needs. Day trading has more profit potential, at least in percentage terms on smaller-sized trading accounts. Swing traders have a better chance of maintaining their percentage returns even as their account grows, up to a certain point.

Capital requirements vary quite a bit across the different markets and trading styles. Day trading requires more time than swing trading, while both take a great deal of practice to gain consistency. Day trading makes the best option for the action lovers. Those seeking a lower-stress and less time-intensive option can embrace swing trading.

The Balance does not provide tax, investment, or financial services and advice. The information is being presented without consideration of the investment objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances of any specific investor and might not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principal.

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