Part 6 Technical Analysis – Using Fibonacci line (trade)

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Contents

Using the Fibonacci tool with trend lines

As discussed in the previous sections, Fibonacci retracement is often used during trending market environments so it makes sense to combine it with the use of trend lines.

Of course this also requires one to be able to draw trend lines properly, and the rule of thumb is to use one that has already been tested at least thrice. This entry-setting method tends to be more reliable on longer-term time frames.

As with other types of support or resistance combined with Fibonacci retracement, there’s always the chance that this method might fail. This could be indicative of a change in market bias or a shift in trend, signaling the start of a reversal.

In this case, traders who are able to be flexible enough to quickly shift biases could use the Fibonacci levels in the direction of the reversal to wait for a potential retest of the broken trend line.

Fibonacci extension levels can be used in setting profit targets as well, but some traders opt to close their trades or have a partial exit at the latest swing low or high. In a downtrend, price typically finds support at the latest swing low while the latest swing high usually acts as resistance in an uptrend.

However in stronger trends, price tends to form new highs or lows. When price has already established which particular Fibonacci retracement level triggered a bounce, it could be easier to determine which extension levels could serve as exit points.

The selection of profit levels could vary depending on the aggressiveness of a trader. This could also depend on the reward-to-risk ratio that a trader is aiming for. Generally, trades that yield at least a 1:1 return on risk make for a good trade idea.

If the scaling-in method is a choice for entering trades, then the scaling-out method is an option for exiting trades. As mentioned earlier, one can book profits or exit part of the trade once price tests the previous swing high or low. The second or third profit level could be set at the next Fibonacci extension levels to press the advantage or catch more pips in case price makes new highs or lows.

You can opt to close half your trade position on the previous high or low then adjust your stop loss to your entry level in the remaining open position in order to protect your recent profits. That way, you can wind up with a risk-free trade on the open position. This is one of the many ways you can reduce your exposure, particularly when there are top-tier events up for release or if you won’t be able to watch your trades for a while.

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How to trade with Fibonacci levels

The term “Fibonacci”, when used in trading, refers to a tool that measures the size of a price move and subsequently places horizontal support and resistance levels on a price chart. These support and resistance levels are referred to as “Fibonacci levels” and are used to make trading decisions in the same way as normal horizontal support and resistance levels.

The Fibonacci tool is applied to a price move

When the price moves in any direction, the beginning and the end of that move can be clearly identified. Using the Fibonacci tool, you measure the distance of that move and the Fibonacci tool will automatically place what is called Fibonacci retracement and extension levels – these are explained in more detail later.

The actual calculations of the Fibonacci levels are based on the numbers in the Fibonacci sequence, or rather the percentage difference between them. However, for this lesson, we will simply show you how to use this tool rather than explaining the mathematics behind it.

Start from the beginning of the price move to the end

The Fibonacci tool is applied manually. When measuring a downtrend, you apply the tool at the start of the move to the end – it is always applied from left to right. The chart below demonstrates this:

  1. The tool drawn starting at the top
  2. The tool ends at the bottom, drawn from left to right

For an upward move, the tool is applied from the bottom and ending at the top – again it is always applied from left to right. The following demonstrates this on a chart:

  1. The tool drawn starting at the bottom
  2. The tool ends at the top, drawn from left to right

Fibonacci levels are automatically placed in MT4

As you can see in the charts above, after the Fibonacci tool has been applied, it automatically places the Fibonacci levels between the start and the end of the move. These levels are referred to as retracement levels.

Fibonacci levels are shown as percentages of that total move. So the level that has been placed halfway between the start and the end of the move is the 50% retracement level. So if the price then retraced halfway back, it is said to have retraced to the 50% level. This then acts as support or resistance, depending on which way the trend is.

The retracement levels, therefore, tell us how far the pullback could be.

In the chart below you can see the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% levels. These are commonly used levels that the price could retrace back to, although there are other retracement levels that have been identified and work well.

Fibonacci retracement levels can be used for entries

As you can see from the chart below, the Fibonacci tool was applied to an uptrend and the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% levels was placed in between the start and the end of the move. As these are levels that the price could retrace back to, you can then use them for potential entries.

  1. Potential long entry at 61.8%
  2. Potential long entry at 50.0%
  3. Potential long entry at 38.2%

How to choose the correct level to enter

There are two ways to choose which retracement levels you use to enter into the markets:

1. Aggressively enter as the price reaches each level.

You could enter at each retracement level placing a stop loss on the other side of the Fibonacci level. If your stop-loss is hit, you simply enter again at the next level and carry on until the price goes back in your favour. This is an aggressive way of finding entries using the Fibonacci tool.

2. Wait until the price finds support or resistance at these levels first, and then enter.

You wait until the price finds support or resistance at these levels, wait for the price to move back in the original direction of the trend and then enter.

It is important to note that Fibonacci is not a trading system in itself – it has to be used in conjunction with or as part of a trading system.

Fibonacci extension levels

The Fibonacci tool is not only used to establish the retracement levels for traders as support or resistance; it can also project extension levels that show where the price could go to. Fibonacci extensions can, therefore, be used for profit taking or even counter trend entries.

The most common extension levels used by traders are the 138.2% and 161.8% levels, although there are many other extension levels used by different traders. The following is an example of extension levels in a downtrend.

  1. 138.2% extension level
  2. 161.8% extension level

The Fibonacci tool can be used to enter a position at one of the retracement levels when the price pulls back and then exit at one of the extension levels.

Below is a chart showing the extension levels of the Fibonacci tool applied to an uptrend. You can see the retracement and extensions levels.

  1. Potential long entry at a retracement level
  2. Potential exit at an extension level

How to choose the extension level at which to take profit

The extension levels can be matched to the corresponding retracement levels to maximise profitability. For example, if the price retraced to the 38.2% retracement level, then the related extension level would be 138.2.

  1. Short entry at 38.2% retracement level
  2. Corresponding extension level at 138.2%

The related extension to the 50.0 or 61.8 retracement level is the 161.8.

  1. Short entry at 50.0% retracement level
  2. Corresponding extension level at 161.8%

The first question you may ask is “why do Fibonacci retracement and extension levels correspond with each other?”. The answer comes back to a self-fulfilling prophecy. Banks and large financial institutions will look to take their profit at some point and targeting a Fibonacci extension level is one method they use. They will be expecting other banks and traders to exit at these levels and so based on these expectations, they do the same – hence a self-fulfilling prophecy.

However, it is important to note that this is not a fixed rule; for extension levels to work, they must be in a confirmed trend and this does not happen every time.

Using each level as a target

An easier method of using the extension levels is simply to exit when the price seems to find significant support or resistance there. In other words, if the price seems to have trouble breaking through a Fibonacci level, then this can be deemed a good exit.

Summary

So far, you have learned that .

  • . the Fibonacci tool places support and resistance lines on a chart, based on a price movement.
  • . the Fibonacci tool is always applied from the left-hand side over to the right-hand side of the price chart, for both long trades in an uptrend and short trades in a downtrend.
  • . the levels placed between the start and the end of the initial move are retracement levels and they show where the price could retrace back to.
  • . the most common Fibonacci retracement levels are 38.2 %, 50% and 61.8% and are commonly used for entries into the market.
  • . there are two ways to use retracement levels for entries, aggressively – entering at each level and passively – waiting for the price to go back in the original direction first.
  • . the levels placed beyond the initial price move are extension levels and they show where the price could go to.
  • . the most common extension levels are the 138.2% and 161.8% levels and are commonly used for exits out of the market.
  • . retracement levels and extension levels can correspond, with a retracement to the 38.2% commonly carrying on to the 138.2% and a retracement to the 50% and 61.8% commonly carrying on to the 161.8% level.

How to Use the Fibonacci Retracement Tool in Your Day Trading Strategy

I keep getting questions about advanced and complex technical indicators like Fibonacci retracements.

What I’m about to write might come across as a little weird, but here goes …

I don’t use most of these ‘super advanced’ technical indicators in my trading. It’s not that I don’t respect them. Nor do I think they are completely worthless. For some traders, these indicators are really important. It’s part of their trading strategy. Which is why you should understand them.

Remember, there are winners and losers in every trade. Your goal is to be on the winning side often enough to grow your account. Rather than tell you what to do with Fibonacci retracement, I’ll explain it and let you decide.

I like to keep things simple. When you join my Trading Challenge you’ll see just how simple. You’ll still have to study your butt off and you might even decide to use Fibonacci retracements as part of your strategy. But I’ll teach you what my other students are doing to become self-sufficient traders.

Table of Contents

What is Fibonacci Retracement?

Fibonacci retracement levels explained: In a nutshell, these are support and resistance levels based on ratios created with numbers in the Fibonacci sequence.

The idea is, a trend is likely to continue once there has been a retracement to one of the Fibonacci levels

In case you don’t know, the Fibonacci numbers are a sequence described by the 13th-century Italian mathematician Leonardo Pisano Bigollo. Today he’s called Fibonacci because, in the 1800s, some historian called him Leonardo filius Bonacci — or Leonardo, son of Bonacci.

Onward. The sequence named after this really smart guy is pretty cool. Check it out: Start with zero and one, then add each number in the sequence to the previous number to get the next number. 0 + 1 = 1, 1 + 1 = 2, 2 + 1 = 3, 3 + 2 = 5, 5 + 3 = 8, and so on.

Here’s the sequence: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, etc.

Right. So I can hear you asking, “Tim, what in the heck does this have to do with trading penny stocks, dude? ”

I’m laughing right now because I sorta agree! But stay with me here, because this is good stuff to know.

Here’s how it works: take any two adjacent numbers in the sequence and divide the lower number by the higher number. For example, 5 ÷ 8 = 0.625; 8 ÷ 13 = 0.61538; and 13 ÷ 21 = 0.61904.

Notice they are all very close to 62%? If you keep going like this, the numbers continue to approach 61.8% which is the number accepted as the average of this ratio. Keep 61.8% in mind; we’ll come back to it.

Back to those Fibonacci numbers …

Next, take a number in the sequence and divide it by the number which is two further along in the sequence. This equation gives you a number close to and approaching 38.2%. For example, 55 ÷ 144 = 0.3819. You can do this with any of the numbers in the sequence and you’ll get roughly 38.2%.

If you keep going, by dividing by the number which is three further along in the sequence, you get 23.6%. So far we have 61.8%, 38.2%, and 23.6%. Those are all the Fibonacci ratios used for retracement. However, the indicator uses 0% and 100%. And most of these retracements also include 50%, even though 50% is not one of the ratios.

Why 0%, 50% and 100%?

The 50% ratio has nothing to do with Fibonacci. It’s based on Dow Theory which says a trend has a good chance of continuing once there has been a 50% retracement (either a pullback or an impulse). 0% and 100% represent the high and low price used to create the Fibonacci retracement.

Before you think you need to be good at math for this, let me say this: I’m not good at math. You don’t have to be good at math. Pretty much every modern stock trading and charting platform has Fibonacci retracement built-in.

The levels are calculated in relation to the vertical distance between high and low — or the 0% and 100% lines.

The theory is, if a stock has shot up over a period of days and starts to pull back, there will be support at the Fibonacci levels below the high. Likewise, if a stock has fallen and bounces back up, you’d see resistance at the Fibonacci levels.

Why is 1.618 The Golden Ratio?

If you’ve read anything about the ancient Greeks, you’ve probably heard of the golden ratio. This was the name they gave to a ratio based on the inverse of our calculations above. How do you get it? Instead of dividing by the next higher number in a Fibonacci sequence, you divide by the number below.

For example: 8 ÷ 5 = 1.6; 13 ÷ 8 = 1.625; and 144 ÷ 89 = 1.6179. Like our ratios above, as you continue along the sequence, the numbers get closer to 1.618. This is considered the golden ratio.

To be clear, the Greeks — and other cultures — noticed the golden ratio in nature and started applying it to art and architecture long before Leonardo Bigollo wrote about the sequence.

It’s found in everything from the spirals of shells to patterns in plants, and even constellations and galaxies. In 2020 it was announced in the journal Science that the golden ratio is “present at the atomic scale.”

Very interesting. But can this help you be a better trader? Keep the golden ratio and how it’s calculated in mind, because later in this post I’ll get back to it.

Benefits of Using Fibonacci Retracement

Pay attention here. What I’m about to tell you might sound slightly controversial. But if you’ve been reading my blog or watching my videos for a while you know I hate the B.S. peddled by some of the so-called gurus out there.

I’m not knocking Fibonacci retracements. Combined with other indicators they might be useful to you. But the greatest benefit of the retracement might be understanding the concept of the self-fulfilling prophecy.

What does that mean? One of the things you want to understand as a trader is human psychology. When it comes to using indicators like Fibonacci retracements, psychology comes into play.

It’s like this: If enough traders use that retracement indicator, then you can potentially predict buy or sell opportunities. And if enough traders act when price action reaches those levels, then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Some traders use Fibonacci trading to determine automated stop losses. Be wary, however. There are dozens of possible indicators out there. Not every trader uses Fibonacci levels. But it pays to be aware what other traders might be thinking …

How To Use Fibonacci Retracement in Technical Analysis

Let’s look at Fibonacci retracement on a stock chart. Check out the Twitter ($TWTR) chart below. The time frame is the end of November 2020 to market close on December 14.

Twitter ($TWTR) chart with Fibonacci retracement lines. Source FreeStockCharts.com

Twitter ($TWTR) chart with Fibonacci retracement lines. Source FreeStockCharts.com

Recent Highs

Looking at the chart above, you see I chose a recent high as one end of the trend line. Using Fibonacci retracement, once there has been a pullback to one of the retracement levels, the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. The levels act as both support and resistance, depending on who is winning the battle between buyers and sellers.

Notice on December 3, the price consolidated right along the 50% line. Then it dropped back and found brief support at the Fibonacci level of 61.8%. But then the theory falls apart because it dropped below support.

What happened? Lots of Fibonacci lovers consider one further level of support or resistance. They subtract 23.6% from 100% and get 76.4%. If you do the math on this chart, the support level on December 6 is just about where that 76% line would be.

OK, then the upward trend continues and this time the price goes up and finds resistance at our next Fibonacci level, 38.2%, on the 7th. Then it drops back to our 61.8% level which is now a support line. And so on, and so forth.

Recent Pullbacks

On the chart above you see support at Fibonacci levels after pullbacks. But what if the trend is moving down instead of up? It works the same way but in reverse. When you draw the trend line using the Fibonacci retracement tool, go from high to low. The support and resistance lines are reversed.

A word of warning: I found the above chart pretty fast. But I could also find a chart where the retracement doesn’t work — where price action is all over the place and doesn’t fit the Fibonacci levels in a clean way. Also, this chart is after the fact. You’ve heard the saying: hindsight is 20/20 vision.

How to Use Fibonacci Retracement Tool in Your Day Trading Strategy

So, how should you use Fibonacci retracement in stocks you plan to trade?

Whatever you do, don’t force it!

If you’re ready to trade a stock on your watchlist, make a day trading plan.

  • Know your entry and exit points.
  • Know the level of risk and how much you are willing to lose.

Check out my Trader Checklist to see how this works.

Whatever you do, before you start making decisions based on Fibonacci retracements, it’s a good idea to see if the chart supports the theory. If you see clear support and/or resistance at the Fibonacci levels, it might be a good idea to use them as part of your plan.

Retracement Warnings

What happens if the stock does not behave? Be prepared. That’s what I always say. Preparation is key. This is not an exact science! So be prepared to cut losses fast or close part of your position to lock in profits.

Don’t get stuck in a trade gone wrong because the friggin’ Fibonacci retracement tool tells you there should be support or resistance at some level. Remember, the indicator gives you an estimated range. If it was exact and reliable every trade would be a winner, right?

Drawing Fibonacci Price Lines

Look at the Twitter chart again. Notice the upward trend. Because it is an upward trend, the retracement is low to high. If the trend was down, the retracement would be based on a high to low trend line.

One more thing: I’ve included the candle shadows (the wicks) as the top and bottom of the trend line. Some traders say it’s more accurate if you use the candle body instead of the shadows. I’m sure I could find charts to support both sides of the argument. Again, it’s not an exact science.

Optimizing Fibonacci Retracement Trading

Keep in mind that a lot of technical traders who use Fibonacci do so in conjunction with more than one other indicator. It’s common for technical traders to use Fibonacci retracements, moving average convergence divergence (MACD), and stochastics at the same time.

If you’re going to use these advanced technical indicators, use more than one to confirm your trade thesis as part of your plan. Technical analysis is a complex subject with a lot to learn. Don’t get overwhelmed; keep studying.

As for me — I like to keep things simple. When you learn how to read a chart, start by identifying basic support and resistance. You can see those levels on most charts without plotting the Fibonacci grid.

How Reliable Is the Fibonacci Retracement in Predicting Stock Behavior?

One of the ways die-hard Fibonacci traders use the ratios is to create Fibonacci projections. To do this, you use the previous price swing and project the Fibonacci levels onto the next swing.

This is where the golden ratio comes into play — 161.8% is one of the projection levels. Other projection levels include 127.2% (the square root of 1.618), 261.8% (divide a number in the Fibonacci sequence by the number two places before it), and 423.6%.

Is Fibonacci projection reliable? If the stock has a history of reacting to Fibonacci retracement levels, then projecting into the future could be fairly reliable. Be careful, however, as things can get very skewed depending on where you start and end the trend line.

By the way, if you want to dig deep into Fibonacci stuff, there are several books available on the subject. I still recommend you keep things simple. My top student, Tim Grittani, didn’t use any of these indicators his first few years of trading. When he did add one, it was VWAP (volume weighted average price).

Example of How Fibonacci Retracement Can Be Used

If you’re determined to give this indicator a go, start with paper trading.

How should you use it? First, be aware there are traders who believe in Fibonacci retracement levels and use them as entry and exit points.

By understanding this, you can use the levels to confirm or deny your trade thesis. But remember, it’s subjective and there is human psychology at play. The price action may or may not follow Fibonacci levels.

Key Tips to Follow While Using the Fibonacci Retracement Tool

Never Chase Your Losses

I tend to be a conservative trader. Plus I’ve lost some pretty hefty sums on trades over the years. Learn from my mistakes!

The worst thing you can do to try to chase a trade. So if the trade is going against you but the Fibonacci retracement tells you it shouldn’t — get the hell out!

Always follow this credo. If things go against you, get out. Close your position. Cut your losses.

Then you can take a step back and figure out what went wrong. Learn the lesson from the trade. If you start chasing losses and trying to make up for the loss you’ll lose more. So don’t do it!

Don’t Trust in Stock Promoters

I say this over and over again. The reason I mention it here is because sometimes stock promoters use technical analysis terminology to pump stocks. “Based on Fibonacci retracement, this super stock will break out to new highs and you could turn every $1,000 you invest into $14,276!” Yeah, right. That’s a huge load of B.S.

Like I keep saying, learn to play the pump and dump — but don’t believe the hype. What should you do to play it? First, apply for my Trading Challenge. That’s where you can learn how to be a self-sufficient trader

Never Stop Learning

Even if you don’t make a decision to join the Trading Challenge, you should set the intention to never stop learning. This is a lifelong skill. As such, it takes time and effort to learn. You can’t cheat success.

What’s the Trading Challenge? It’s my top course for creating self-sufficient, knowledgeable traders. My goal: create as many self-sufficient students as possible.

What do you get as part of the Trading Challenge? Glad you asked …

Access to hundreds of instructional videos, live webinars, a community of dedicated traders, and mentoring from some seriously incredible traders. It’s awesome. But you’ll have to work. It’s not a gimme — it takes dedication and serious commitment.

The Bottom Line

Fibonacci retracements might inform your trading plan. Then again, you might decide to keep it simple like I do and like most of my top students do.

There are traders out there who swear by this indicator. They specialize in trading stocks or forex based primarily on the Fibonacci retracement levels.

Should you use them in your trading? One of the basic ideas I teach as part of the Trading Challenge is that we’re all different. You need to decide if using this indicator works as part of your strategy.

I recommend you keep a watchlist. Then you can paper trade using Fibonacci retracement levels to see if it suits you.

Are you a trader? Do you use Fibonacci retracement as part of your strategy? Comment below — let me know how it’s working for you.

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Tim Sykes is a penny stock trader and teacher who became a self-made millionaire by the age of 22 by trading $12,415 of bar mitzvah money. After becoming disenchanted with the hedge fund world, he established the Tim Sykes Trading Challenge to teach aspiring traders how to follow his trading strategies. He’s been featured in a variety of media outlets including CNN, Larry King, Steve Harvey, Forbes, Men’s Journal, and more. He’s also an active philanthropist and environmental activist, a co-founder of Karmagawa, and has donated millions of dollars to charity. Read More

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      Comments ( 13 )
      Hey Everyone,

      As many of you already know I grew up in a middle class family and didn’t have many luxuries. But through trading I was able to change my circumstances –not just for me — but for my parents as well. I now want to help you and thousands of other people from all around the world achieve similar results!

      Which is why I’ve launched my Trading Challenge. I’m extremely determined to create a millionaire trader out of one my students and hopefully it will be you.

      So when you get a chance make sure you check it out.

      PS: Don’t forget to check out my free Penny Stock Guide, it will teach you everything you need to know about trading. :)

      Thanks for describing the Fibonacci replacement. Now I need to look at the current trading toll trade station and see how I can implement this methodology into my trading strategy

      Very interesting info.
      Keeping my self learning.

      Dear Timothy,
      I’m a close to retirement age women and I have just lost third of my retirement money, which I have saved penny-by-penny working hard my entire life! I paid tons of money to few some proclaimed traders “gurus” but didn’t learn much from them.
      I’m sooooo happy that I have found you!
      I know that you perhaps have thousand of people and can’t assist them individually but I’d dare to ask you (if I may) for your more personalized help to me so I won’t lose rest of my hard earned money and go totally broke.
      Respectfully yours,
      Nadia

      Fibonacci mainly works with Forex trading according to charts and when I’m paper trading

      Heard alot about fibonacci retracements through the market wizards books but personally the levels just aren’t statistically significant enough versus just using s/r levels or some other indicators.

      You started to exploit the characteristics of the indicators.. ��

      Universe is fibonacci. ��

      I would like to thank you for the efforts you have made in writing this blog. Very Informative post

      I use fibs and pivots as THE core to my strategy. Plus a specific setup of Stoch’s. Helps to ‘block’ my trades. BUT proper placement and execution of stop levels is the KEY to consistent y/y profitability. Challenge student.

      Mr Sykes ,you have crazy energy, are you doing Nofap, the dragon you know

      what happened to the webinar today? Been waiting for it but no webinar?

      Leave a Reply Cancel reply

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Best Binary Options Trading Guide For Beginners
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