USDJPY – Two Weeks of Bullish Activity

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USDCAD and USDJPY Bullish Threats Eased

US Dollar weakness has resurfaced since the FOMC March Meeting on Wednesday, with this activity neutralising much of the positive US$ activity from late February (driven by anticipation of a more hawkish Fed). Read more forex market analyses here.

For USDCAD, this has now rejected the threat of a more bullish shift, only signalled through 1.3598, pointing to a negative consolidation theme into the second part of March.

USDCAD

An unexpected rebound on Friday, but we view this as very short-term corrective in nature, leaving bearish pressures from the Wednesday plunge after the Fed, keeping risk lower for Monday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3272; break here aims for 1.3229, maybe 1.3160.
  • But above 1.3378 opens risk up towards 1.3465.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.3598 and 1.2965.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.3598 aims higher for 1.3837/59 and 1.4000/17.
  • Downside: Below 1.2965 sees risk lower for 1.2759 and 1.2457.

Daily USDCAD Chart

USDJPY

Another push lower on Friday down through supports at 112.88 and 112.73, sustaining the post-FOMC sell-off through notable support at 113.53/44, maintaining the downside bias for Monday.

Furthermore, the intermediate-term risk within the range environment has shifted from a bullish shift above 115.63, to threat of a bearish shift below 111.32.

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For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 112.52; break here aims for 112.00, maybe to the 111.66/58 area.
  • But above 113.21 opens risk up to 113.56, maybe 114.00.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 111.32 and 115.63.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Downside: Below 111.32 sees risk lower for 110.00/109.76 and 108.51.
  • Upside: Above 115.63 aims higher for 118.65, 120.00/10 and 121.69.

Daily USDJPY Chart

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Anti-bullying

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Anti-bullying

The lesson can be used for Anti-Bullying Week or as a stand-alone lesson.

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Students begin the lesson by discussing their own attitudes towards bullies, bullying and the role of bystanders. Next, they read two texts about bullies and bystanders. Finally, the students return to their original attitudes. They discuss to what extent our attitudes promote or prevent bullying. As a further optional activity, students prepare a poster for an anti-bullying campaign.

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Age/Level:

Secondary (13–15 year olds) CEF level B1 and above

Time:

Materials:

The lesson plan and student worksheets can be downloaded below in PDF format.

Technical Analysis – USDJPY holds bullish bias within ascending channel

USDJPY failed to hold gains above the 111 level last week but it refrained from crossing below the 50-day moving average (MA), following a sideway path instead. The pair is developing within the upper area of the ascending channel, while the MACD continues to improve above its red signal line and in positive territory, suggesting that the pair is more likely to hold higher in the short-term. The RSI keeps rising as well but with the indicator trending close to the overbought mark of 70, negative corrections cannot be excluded.

Should the market head northwards, the upper line of the channel which converges with the 200-day MA at 111.30 will be closely watched as any significant step above this area could unleash a stronger rally. If that’s the case resistance could next run towards 112.20, a previous support level, and then straight up to the 113 psychological level. Higher up, another important barrier may appear around 113.70.

On the downside, the 50% Fibonacci of 110.48 of the downleg from 114.54 to 106.45 has been halting downside movements this week and could appear restrictive once again If bearish forces resume. Lower down, a key support could be found at the crossroads of the 20- and the 50-day MAs at 110, while a bigger attention is expected to gather around 109.76 and the bottom of the channel. If the bears manage to drive the price decisively out of the channel and below the 38.2% Fibonacci of 109.53, it would be interesting to see whether the price can cross below 109, the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud, to retest the 23.6% Fibonacci of 108.34.

In the medium-term picture, the outlook remains negative as long as the market holds below 111.37. The bearish cross between the 50 and the 200-day MA, however, signals that things could turn worse before getting better in the medium-term.

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